Many people have pointed out instabilities in the (financial) system and associated political and international arrangements. Since 2008, lots of money has been spent\/printed, and lots of arrangements have been made to keep the system running, but it is doubtful that the instabilities have indeed been dramatically reduced system-wide. If they haven’t, how would we know it was time to worry?<\/p>\n
I’ve always liked the sandpile model<\/a>: As anybody knows who has ever played with the sand on a beach, you can trickle sand grains on a pile until a certain point, when suddenly, some — largely unpredictable — part of the sandpile collapses. Sometimes it’s just a little avalanche that’s localized and stops quickly. Sometimes a big part of the mountain breaks off. When several little avalanches happen in not-too-distant parts of the pile, you know that a big thing is about to happen.<\/p>\n I believe it’s the same thing about financial, political, inter-governmental, international etc. movements (these days they are all so intertwingelt, there is no point in drawing lines). And so when I read the news today, I’m getting an ominous feeling. Here is a selection of headlines from today:<\/p>\n “Officials of an important Italian institution approached me and told me that they are in solidarity with our country, but they cannot tell the truth as Italy is threatened by bankruptcy and they fear from the German consequences<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n In recent years, a cloud of fear has covered throughout Europe. We risk to become worse the the former Soviet Union.<\/strong>“<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n
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