Johannes Ernst on January 26th, 2012

1. I expect you hear what I’m saying (or typing), and not ignore the essence of it.

Example: If I say “I want to cancel my account”, you cannot respond: “I understand you are having trouble with your account.” That’s not what I said.

2. I expect that you respond in a timely manner.

Example: I do not have time to wait for 4 minutes between IM messages from you. And you certainly can’t hang up the chat if I take 3 minutes to respond to one of your messages if you keep taking 4 minutes.

3. I expect you to remember what I said earlier in the conversation.

Example: if you ask me for the last order number, and I give it to you, you cannot ask me the same question again 2 minutes later. In particular you can’t do that if it’s a text chat and all you need to do is scroll up.

4. If I ask for a supervisor, you need to connect me to a supervisor.

Example: You cannot pretend that you didn’t hear that, or claim that they can’t help me. At the very least, they can listen to what I have to say about their employee or their process.

Is that too much to ask? I’m not even asking for competence, or friendliness, or that you apply what you learned in emphatic response class. Just that you don’t drive me insane!

(All of the above just happened in a 45-min, unsuccessful chat with Skype support. I was attempting to close an account and refund a cash balance. I would have posted the entire transcript but their web chat app deletes the transcript as soon as the chat is over. To protect the guilty I’m sure.)

The January 2012 Worst Customer Support Experience goes to Skype. Congratulations, it’s an accomplishment.

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Johannes Ernst on January 1st, 2012

I found myself asking Five Whys about the current economic difficulties in the Euro zone and the world in general. The 4th question is the really hard one and one that I had not seen answered well anywhere. I suggest that even if you disagree with my answer, do not believe any commentator on the current situation unless they have a rather good answer to this question.

Q1: Why did Lehman Brothers collapse?

Lehman got caught in the bursting of the housing bubble. Their losses were too great to survive.

Q2: Why was there a housing bubble?

Interest rates have been at historic lows for the past 10 years or so. Because credit has been cheap, too many, and too many expensive houses were built in the US and many other places.

Q3: Why were interest rates so low for such a long time?

To prevent the economy from going into recession. Unusually, this has been a real danger for the past 10 years and so unusually low interest rates have been required for an unusually long time.

Q4: Why hasn’t the economy started growing the ‘normal’ way again, after all this stimulus, and after so many years?

[This is the interesting one. Historically recessions haven't lasted this long, and this time around, record-low interest rates for a record-long time have not made growth appear. Note that while arguably today total debt is too high to allow economies to grow well (a balance sheet recession), we had to have record-low interest rates in the US and other countries, with little effect, for some years *before* the debt became so large, so that is not a sufficient explanation.]

So why doesn’t the economy grow?

I have looked around for explanations, and found very little even remotely compelling. The consensus seems to be “let’s just try harder what we’ve doing so far and magic will happen”, which becomes less and less plausible to me every passing year.

My answer: the economy isn’t growing because it is going through a fundamental change that so far has not been recognized by mainstream economists or commentators. (One economist who does is Carlota Perez; watch Fred Wilson’s highly interesting interview with her.)

I would put it as “the information age finally has arrived”. In my view, the fundamental reason for a lack of GDP growth is that what used to be mostly atoms (that almost always cost money i.e. GDP) are rapidly becoming bits (that, more often than not, are free, or far less expensive than atoms).

Think of all the atoms that don’t need to be moved around any more: physical CDs, DVDs, games, now books. Entire supply chains work 10x better while moving less atoms around, all by moving bits around instead. Avoiding sending atoms around increases quality of life, but it shrinks GDP! And new innovations like 3-D printing will cut even further into GDP.

Bits, by and large, do not generate (much) GDP! If some new software can avoid that three new widgets are being produced and shipped and displayed in stores and driven home and used and discarded and recycled, the new revenue is only for the software, while each stage in the lifecycle of the old widget would have contributed to GDP! That GDP is all gone and won’t come back.

Yes, technological revolutions always make old revenue disappear, e.g. for carriage makers when cars appeared. But the information revolution is different because the old revenue is replaced by a lot less new revenue. Not by new cars that are even more expensive than old carriages. But by bits, most of which are free.

Great example: playing chess on-line with somebody exactly at my level of skill instead of buying the chess set and driving the friend all over town once a week. Less bits moved, less resources consumed, more fun being had, more health etc. And far less GDP from chess set makers and gas stations etc.

So, my prediction: the current economic malaise is not going to go away because GDP isn’t going to grow as much as it is used to. The “malaise” is the new normal, it is here to stay, and likely will intensify as the information technology revolution continues.

(Where that leaves the financial system, I have no idea. In fact, I have no idea where economics as a discipline goes in an era where the era’s primary good — bits — is not scarce but becomes more valuable the more people use it. But that’s a topic for another day.)

Now if we had just one presidential candidate in the race, just one, who had something to say about anything like this?!? In any country? No wonder the world is disoriented, angry, and feeling adrift …

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Johannes Ernst on November 20th, 2011

Jean-Louis Gassée now thinks it’s likely Apple will get into the carrier business, perhaps as a MVNO. I predicted something like it a while back.

My reasoning is simple:

10 years down the road (or 5, or 20 if you like), do you really think that the oligopolic, infuriating carriers get to remain unchallenged in the way they do business, while the four horsemen (Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google) have swallowed up every adjacent business other than connectivity, which every single one of their features depends on?

An MVNO might be a way in, but it’s half-hearted if the eventual strategic outcome is so clear: the eventual horsement will deliver connectivity as well.

At the end of July, for various reasons, my wife and I had to change health insurers from Kaiser Permanente to United Health. Given that Kaiser has its own doctors, that also meant changing provider organizations, in our case to Palo Alto Medical Foundation (PAMF), which is a Sutter Health affiliate. Which means we needed a means to get 16 years of health information shipped from Kaiser to PAMF.

So on-top-of-things-guy that I am (or so I thought), I went to the Kaiser medical records office in mid-July to get that process started. It goes without mentioning that the bureaucracy is of course horrendous, their forms reflect a different business process than they apparently have but they either don’t understand that or pretend otherwise, and I actually had to show up in person and stand in line three times, and in several other places besides, and fill out a total of 10 forms I think, in order to just request for a copy of all records Kaiser has about my wife, me and our son.

I was making it very clear that I needed those records asap so I could continue without interruptions with my allergy shots, and we could continue some long-term medications. They said 10 days. (And they say us software developers are bad at estimating.)

To make the long story short, at the end of October, we finally had most of the information. I had to resort to threatening some people repeatedly, and make a not insignificant number of trips back in again, and to other places where Kaiser record keeping apparently doesn’t know it keeps records (particularly if they are electronic, and stored in their main Health Connect system. The mind boggles…).

What we finally got was a stack of paper (no argument there for the earlier years where computerization wasn’t as advanced), X-Ray etc. files on CD, and separate CDs with the electronicly available medical information.

(The CDs were password-protected. With our birth dates as sole passwords. The mind boggles some more.)

Finally: insert CD. Open the electronic files. We made it!

And it is PDF.

Pages and pages and pages of repetitive PDF with no index, no organization, and 95% boilerplate. I tried to start reading. It simply not possible. You can’t find anything. It’s unusable. It can’t be parsed by computers (it’s PDF) but it also can’t be parsed by humans.

The best part: PAMF, where we are going, has *the same medical records system* (Epic) that Kaiser has, from the same vendor. And all we get is PDF which has no hope of being entered there.

In practice, I took my medical records to my new doctor by me carrying a binder, with paper notes, that I took over the years whenever I went to the doctor. This binder has been a much better record of my health than anything we got from Kaiser, electronic or otherwise. I doubt it would be any better if we went from PAMF to Kaiser. The paper was timely (August, and September, and October — before the Kaiser stuff arrived), much more usable (ordered) and it appears, more complete.

This situation is insane.

I’ll never ever depend again on some health care organization maintaining my health records for me.

So decided to put together a crude medical records system for myself and my family. It’s worth it for me even if we are the only people who are ever going to use it. My plan is to grab InfoGrid, which makes rapid development of web apps based on a rich graph data foundation really simple, start with its usual application template, and incrementally add stuff. All open-source, of course, anybody who’s just as upset at this as me can use it, and who knows maybe some people might want to contribute.

Innovatively, I’m going to call it MyHealth.

I’m thinking of basically starting to read through that awful Kaiser PDF, and as I encounter useful information (which I hope is in there somewhere), augment MyHealth’s model/schema and the GUI right then and there and enter what I find. And keep repeating that till I have the important bits recorded and analyzable.

I’d like to see a graph of my blood tests results or blood pressure over time, not just the ones taken by one doctor. I’d like to add my own blood pressure and weight measurements. I’d like to add fitness info, and track when in the season I started taking allergy pills and how long and how well they worked. Maybe there is a way of hooking up FitBit info, or info from the very cool Jawbone UP.

Not sure where it will go, but given I have to read through the awful Kaiser PDF anyway and summarize it, I might as well put it somewhere where the info might be usable.

I’m planning to document my technical progress over at the InfoGrid blog. It’s just going to be a little side project for the evenings, but I wouldn’t expect it to take too long to be useful.

So, health software industry, here’s one helluva unhappy customer who is not taking it any more that your systems cost gazillions and basically don’t work, and who is creating his own. Take that!

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Johannes Ernst on October 10th, 2011

Very worthwhile to listen to.

http://5by5.tv/hypercritical/37-a-story-of-triumph

“People made this!”

Hat tip to Scott Loftesness on Facebook.